08.29.08
I PK UR NUMBERS: Booking The Next TF2 Pack
So now that the Heavy Pack has been released to the rabid Team Fortress 2 masses for consumption, our collective Thought Train has once again pulled into everyone’s favorite stop, Speculation Station. What’s the next Pack going to be? Will it be for your class? Are they finally going to nerf the Demoman? Let’s take a look at the numbers and see if we can’t make a decent book on whom the next update will be for.
As an early note to anyone curious, these stats were pulled right off of the TF2 stats website at 6 PM PST on 8/29/08, making them current for the week of 8/22/08 through 8/29/08. Right.
First, let’s take a look at the global percentage of time played for the remaining six classes without Packs. Remember, the first few classes to get Packs were seemingly chosen by their popularity (or rather, lack thereof) in-game.
PERCENT OF GLOBAL TIME PLAYED
All percents are approximate, just so’s you know.
Engineer (14%)
Sniper (10.5%)
Demoman (10%)
Soldier (10%)
Spy (7%)
Scout (5%)
So, Spy and Scout are clearly in the basement here. What about for points?
POINTS
Sniper (110)
Spy (100)
Demoman (90)
Soldier (90)
Scout (70)
Engineer (60)
Scout is still scraping the bottom of the barrel here, but Spy looks significantly brighter. Remember, now, that a Spy gets 2 points for most of their kills: one for the kill itself, and a second point for the backstab. Let’s check the kill stats.
KILLS
Demoman (67)
Soldier (64)
Sniper (62)
Scout (45)
Spy (45)
Engineer (42)
Spy and Scout tie here, meaning that the Spy is only getting 10 non-kill points on average, compared to the Scout’s 25. Now, this isn’t quite as damning as it might first seem, as recall that Scouts are likely getting most non-kill points from captures, which are worth 2 points apiece. Taking a look at the average # of captures per hour, however, paints a different story. The Scout is currently managing 5.5 captures an hour, a full 3 captures more than his closest competition. Coupled with his average of 16 kill assists an hour, this is a reasonable mix of point-earning methods.
The Spy, on the other hand, appears to average a dismal 3 kill assists an hour, meaning that his other 7 non-kill points are likely from destruction, at a rate of one building every eight minutes or so. Note that this number may be slightly higher, depending on how many non-backstab kills Spies are averaging globally. Since we don’t have access to those sorts of numbers, we can only dream.
All that said, as a first pass, I’m willing to put the odds of the recipient of the next Pack into the following three general groups.
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Spy - 1 to 1
Scout - 6 to 5
The Scout and Spy are clearly suffering on the stats page, and I would wager that this is primarily due to their high learning curves and the novel skillsets required to play them well (pure twitch in the Scout’s case, and strategic/stealth skills for the Spy). Going purely by the numbers, I think the Spy update is slightly more likely than the Scout’s, and the odds I’ve assigned reflect as much. Also in the Spy’s favor is the fact that he could have his own Meet The Team video released alongside his namesake Pack; Meet The Scout, of course, is already old news.
Engineer - 3 to 2
Demoman - 2 to 1
The Engineer and Demoman are the only classes that Valve has publicly acknowledged still have balance issues: the Engineer for his bipolar sentry guns, either stalemating a crappy team or barely fazing a skilled one, and the Demoman for his entirely-too-offensive defensive sticky grenades. Rolling a fix for these issues out with a Pack would be an elegant solution, so the question is simply whether Valve intends to do this sooner rather than later. I’m willing to bet that, at least for this next Pack, the answer will be ‘later’. Note, as well, the relative popularity of the Engineer class. Discounting the elevated totals for classes who have just received an update, the Engineer is consistently the most played class. Though the first Packs were certainly targeted at the unpopular classes, if the Engineer is being perceived as boring or problematic, it would likely behoove Valve to get out a fix to those players, which is why I’ve booked the Engineer Pack at being slightly more likely than the dark horse Demo Pack.
Soldier - 4 to 1
Sniper - 5 to 1
As shown by the numbers and my own personal experience with these classes, they’re not having any problems functioning as part of a team at this time. In fact, Sniper might even be a bit *too* popular, especially in the wake of the Heavy Pack. I don’t think we’ll see Packs for these guys until sometime next year.
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So there we have it. The odds may be a little off, but for the most part, I think my analysis is accurate. If you have any interesting counter-points, dear readers, please share. If I can find time in the coming days, I’d also like to do an analysis of what exactly we should be hoping for in a Spy or Scout Pack. Regardless, however, I’m fairly confident that Valve won’t disappoint us.